News from Notch Consulting, Inc.

June 8, 2020

Goodyear forecasts 50% drop in tire volumes in Q2

Filed under: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Rubber, Tires — Notch @ 12:42 am

In a 424B filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission dated May 13, 2020, Goodyear Tire & Rubber provided an overview of its actions in response to COVID-19 and a view of the tire industry’s performance in 2020.

We currently believe that our largest volume declines will occur in the second quarter of 2020, with volumes down approximately 50% compared to the second quarter of 2019. Overhead absorption will also continue to be adversely affected by reduced plant production during the second quarter of 2020. We are currently planning for our production to be down almost 25 million units versus the second quarter of 2019 in order to reflect expected demand and to reduce inventory.

In addition, our other tire-related businesses are also being significantly affected by the weakening economic environment. Traffic and volume at our retail locations is low and the sharp drop in business and leisure travel is adversely impacting our aviation business. Our chemicals business is also feeling the effects of the decline in tire production. In total, the year-over-year earnings decline in our other tire-related businesses is expected to be about $150 million during the second quarter of 2020.

For the full year of 2020, we now expect our raw material costs will be a benefit of $50 million to $100 million compared to 2019, excluding transactional foreign currency and raw material cost saving measures. Natural and synthetic rubber prices and other commodity prices historically have been volatile, and this estimate could change significantly based on fluctuations in the cost of these and other key raw materials. We are continuing to focus on price and product mix, to substitute lower cost materials where possible, to work to identify additional substitution opportunities, to reduce the amount of material required in each tire, and to pursue alternative raw materials.

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